Marius Bancila’s Blog

Two months ago I was showing my friends a film called “The Great Global Warming Swindle.” As the title suggests, the topic of the movie is the global scale deceit about the man-made global warming. A number of important scientists argue that man has nothing to do with the rise of temperature and everything happens of natural causes.

Link:

After a hacker broke into the computers at the University of East Anglia’s Climate Research Unit, stole and published on the internet tens of megabytes of data and emails, it seems that the premises for the greatest scandal in modern science are set, and the truth will be finally revealed. These information show that top scientists have deliberately alter data to exaggerate global warming, destroyed embarrassing data, pushed for discrediting scientists that had other views on the topics, and others. This scandal is now referred to as Climate-gate.

I suggest that you watch the movie. It explains both what is causing the rise in temperature and why all the fuss around this phenomenon.

Now, the theory about man-driver temperature rise is based on two ideas: temperature variations depend on CO2 level variations, and man activity increases the CO2 in the atmosphere. Here are two charts from Wikipedia that show the variation of temperature in the last 150 years and last 1000 years.

Source: Wikipedia - Temperature record of the past 1000 years

Source: Wikipedia: 1000 Year Temperature Comparison

You can find more charts here.

What these charts show is that in the last 150 years the temperature has risen and fallen. The greater rise occurred before 1940. And after 1940, when the world entered an economic boom, the temperature dropped for 3 decades. That doesn’t make any sense if the original hypothesis, that the more CO2 the greater the temperature, is true, because booming economies mean more CO2 being produced. In fact, the scientist were alarmed that a new ice age was coming. On April 28, 1975, Newsweek published an article about cooling and the effects on the planet. Here is a quote from the article:

There are ominous signs that the Earth’s weather patterns have begun to change dramatically and that these changes may portend a drastic decline in food production – with serious political implications for just about every nation on Earth. The drop in food output could begin quite soon, perhaps only 10 years from now. The regions destined to feel its impact are the great wheat-producing lands of Canada and the U.S.S.R. in the North, along with a number of marginally self-sufficient tropical areas – parts of India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Indochina and Indonesia – where the growing season is dependent upon the rains brought by the monsoon.

Read the entire article here.

Then the question is, is there a link between CO2 and temperature? The answer is yes, but it’s mostly the other way around: the temperature is driving the CO2 level, with CO2 lagging 800-1000 years behind the temperature changes. Here are some charts of atmospheric CO2 concentration and temperature in lower atmosphere for the last 400,000 years.

Atmospheric CO2 Concetrations for last 400,000 years

Temperature of Lower Atmosphere for last 400,000 years

Here are several articles on this topic:

• Comparison of Atmospheric Temperature with CO2 Over The Last 400,000 Years
• Ice Core Studies Prove CO2 Is Not the Powerful Climate Driver Climate Alarmists Make It Out to Be
• CO2 lags temperature – what does it mean?

The rise of temperature causes a rise of atmospheric CO2 because when the ocean warm the solubility of CO2 in the water falls, which leads to more CO2 being released into the atmosphere from the oceans. The amount of CO2 released in the atmosphere by man is much less than the one released from the oceans. Why is there a lag between the rise of temperature and CO2? Because the oceans act as a big buffer, but the exact dynamics are not yet well known. However, this doesn’t mean that the greenhouse effect doesn’t exist. It does. As more CO2 is released into the atmosphere, it absorbs more radiation reflected by the earth surface, heating the atmosphere.

So why is temperature rising? What is driving it? Well, the answer is the sun. The more solar activity, the more solar wind and cosmic dust hit the atmosphere which influences the formation of clouds and eventually the temperature. The next images shows the correlation between solar sunspots and global temperature variations.

Solar sunspot activity vs. Global temperatur variations

400 years of Suspot Observations

Temperature, Co2 & Sunspots

You can read more about sunspots observations here:

• Wikipedia: Sunspots
• History of Sunspot Observations
• Solar Sunspot Activity vs. Global Temperature Variations
• Solar Cycle 24 – real time monitoring of the sun activity

Of course, not everybody agrees that Temperature, CO2 & sunspots correlate. For instance, you can read the following article that claims the opposite. It could be possible that this hypothesis is wrong, as many other theories were proved wrong over time.

Hopefully in the coming years (because this will take some time) the truth will be revealed. It would be silly to waste our efforts on the wrong direction. However, whatever the truth is, consuming the planet’s resource on a ever growing pace will prove catastrophic. We will never be able to kill the planet. But the planet can terminate us at any time.

Arad. Pod peste soseaua de centura. Doua benzi pe sens. Momentan in reparatii.

S-a inchis un sens (stanga in imaginile de mai jos), si s-a circulat pe cealalta parte in ambele sensuri. Acum nici doua luni s-a inversat traficul, circulandu-se pe partea reparata. Iata cum arata podul recent renovat.

Podul aflat in renovare

Jumatarea reamenajata deja si data in folosita in aceasta vara

Calitatea asfaltului se vede foarte clar aici

Valuri, valuri, valuri de asfalt

In aceasta tara numai se fura, se insala, se duce cu zaharelul. Iar constructiile sunt cele mai dezastruoase. Toate proiectele se duc la capat intru-un timp de 3-4 ori mai lung decat cel preconizat, cu costuri de cateva ori mai mari, si cu o calitate ZERO! Nu inteleg cum e posibil ca un drum dat in folosita acum nici doua luni sa fie plin de valuri de asfalt. RUSINE, RUSINE, RUSINE!!!

Chicken chicken chicken chicken chicken chicken chicken chicken. On in other words, this is one of the most funniest presentations I’ve ever seen.

After blogging for two years I have decided to make a change in the look of my blog. So I have changed the appearance theme from ‘indigo’ to ‘coogee’. I think it looks better and hopefully will prove to be a better “reader experience”. I tested the new theme on IE7, Firefox 3, Google Chrome and Safari (hopefully I won’t be blamed for not having Opera on my machine). They all look good starting with a resolution of 1024 x 768 (I didn’t actually checked lower resolution because I think nobody uses less than that anyway).

And since I’m talking about updates, I must say that the Wordpress Automatic Upgrade plugin for Wordpress works just great. It saved me a lot of time, and I recommend it to anyone using Wordpress.

Microsoft’s Certified Partners for Learning Solutions are providing this offer untill the end of the year: enroll and attend any one of top Windows Sever 2008 training classes and receive a free copy of Microsoft Windows Server 2008 Standard Edition NFR (Not For Resale). Details about this offer can be found at http://trainingoffers.com/WS2008NFR.aspx. To see the list of available course and training centers select your country, and the state and/or city.

In Romania, the cities with training centers are Bucharest, Timisoara and Constanta.

RONUA.RO a implinit 4 ani. Pentru aceasta iti multumim, in primul rand tie pentru sprijinul acordat, sprijin fara de care noi, nu am fi implinit 4 ani in aceasta luna. Cu aceasta ocazie festiva, in timpul roadshow-ului TechEd Review 2008, dorim sa facem diferenta intr-o campanie inovativa de promovare a demersului la nivel global de combatere a subnutritiei ca principala cauza a mortalitatii in randul copiilor sub 5 ani.

PROBLEMA

La fiecare sase secunde, undeva in lume, un copil cu varsta sub 5 ani moare din cauza subnutritiei (adica peste 5.000.000 de copii anual, in total). 800 de milioane de oameni se duc la culcare flamanzi. 50% din copiii de pe glob sunt grav sub greutatea normala. (Sursa: UNICEF, Starea copiilor lumii.)

INITIATIVA

AXTI se alatură efortului fundatiei “Nourish The Children” (NTC) în vederea conștientizării problemei și a popularizării metodelor de soluționare a acesteia.

Toate comunitățile afiliate AXTI, printre care și RONUA.RO promoveaza on-line si off-line aceasta campanie.

SOLUTIA

Eu, Marius Bancila, ma angajez sa donez timp de 3 luni suma aferentă hranei pentru 5 copii (3 luni x 5 copii); Fiecare dintre acesti 5 copii vor fi hraniti timp de 3 luni din donatiile de 237 RON/lună.

Afla ce trebuie sa faci tu ca sa devii parte a solutiei:
http://ronua.ro/CS/content/NourishTheChildrenAxtiRonua4ani.aspx#solutia

I recently spent a two weeks vacation in Croatia, plus a couple of days in Slovenia, visiting different locations, such as Ljubljana, Postojna, Split, Brela, Mlini, Dubrovnik, Plitvice Jezera and Zagreb.

Here are some impressions from this vacation (an perhaps things to know).

Roads & Traveling

Roads are great, especially the motorways. The infrastructure is impressive (wich we could have only a little bit of it in Romania). You have to pay for the motorway, and it’s about 6 euro (or 42 kuna) per 100 km. The good thing is that you can pay either in Kuna or Euro. In Slovenia, since July 2008 you need a vignette, which is 35 euros for 6 months (the smallest time period), and it must be sticked to the windshild on the top-left corner. As for traffic jams I only experienced one in Rijeka and in Makarska. The later town has on both entries (from Split and from Dubrovnik) congestions spanning over 5 km, and you need 30-45 minutes for those few kilometers. Police patrols are everywhere, on the motorways, on the national roads, in the cities. Between Plitvice and Zagreb, on 120 km we met at least 4 patrols, 3 of them with radars.

Accomodation

Everybody has a room or apartment (“sobe” in Croatian) to rent. Really, all over the play you can see boards with “Sobe / Zimmer / Camera / Rooms”. You can even see people waiting in parking places asking if you don’t want to rent a room. If I understood correctly Croatians don’t pay taxes for this service of renting rooms, so I guess this is one of the reasons there are so many rooms for renting.

On the other hand, I can say Crotaia redefined my idea about crowded space, especially concerning the parking places. The towns along the litoral are spanned on the vertical, with villas erected on every empty space. Often it could be a hard to find a parking space or locate the building you’re looking for (especially since not all the building have numbers on them).

Tourist Information

Everywhere I’ve been, there was a touring information, offering free leflets, maps and information in different languages. In Zagreb we met two girls walking on the streets and providing information on demand.

Food and Restaurants

One curious thing (at least to me) was that most of the waiters in Croatia were men. In fact, we found a single restaurant (in Dubrovnik) were there were girls serving at the tables. Meals were in general very good (and unlike Itally, you don’t have to pay the “copperto” only for sitting at the table). I especially engoyed the beef stakes, and the best one I had at the Sedra Restaurant, in Irinovac, near Plitvice.

English

Though not everybody talks English, we were able to make eachother understood everywhere. Some people that rent rooms speak English, other German or Italian. Most waiters are able to speek English (all that served us did). Even the lady that sold us tram tickets in Zagreb was able to understand us. Sometime people talk to you in English, like a biker and excused itself for interupting us while making a picture. So in general, if you talk English or German you shouldn’t have problems (at least for) making yourself understood.

Things to see

Croatians are very good at advertising themselves. Some of the descriptions that you see on leflets are a little bit (at least) exagerated. But nevertheless there are nice things you can see. A few things that I could mention are the Old Town of Dubrovnik, the Domicletian’s Palace in Split, the center of Zagreb (especially the parks) and the National Park Plitvice Jezera (there are many national parks, but this one is the most beautiful and spectaculos). And I should not forget the beaches. though you won’t find sand on the beaches, only pebbles. But the water is clear and warm.

Below there are several pictures from Croatia.

Cloud over Brela

Dubrovnik cost line

Beach at Mlini

Waterfalls at Plitvice

Leaf floating on a lake at Plitvice

Lotus flower in the Botanic Garden in Zagreb

Building decoration in Zagreb

Today we mark 100 years since the Tunguska explosion that occurred near the Podkamennaya Tunguska River, Russia. The energy blasted from the explosion is estimated to 5 to 30 megatons, with 5 to 15 the most likely. It wiped out an estimated 80 million trees on 2150 squared kilometers.

The cause of the explosion, is, most likely, the burst of a meteor or comet into the air. According to Boris Shustov of the Russian Academy of Sciences:

We know that a rather massive body flew into the atmosphere of our planet. It measured 40 to 60 meters in diameter. Clearly, it did not consist of iron, otherwise it would have certainly reached the earth. The body decelerated in the atmosphere, the deceleration being very abrupt, so the whole energy of this body flying with a velocity of more than 20 [kilo]meters per second was released, which resulted in a mid-air explosion, very similar to a thermo-nuclear blast.

The yield of the explosion totaled 10 to 15 megatons, which matches the yields of the largest hydrogen bomb ever tested on the planet. The explosion felled some 80 million trees and caused natural phenomena. It is generally assumed that the blast did not kill any people.

Of course, there are other theories about the cause of the explosion:

• UFO crash; sometimes the Tunguska event was called the Russian Roswell incident; though claims of a spaceship debris recovery were made, they have not been proved.
• The annihilation of a chunk of antimatter from space
• A black hole zipping through Earth.
• a “death ray” generated by Nikola Tesla. One story says that he tested a death ray on the eve of June 30. Once he heard of the event at Tunguska he dismantled the weapon, considering it too dangerous.

Whether a natural event, UFO crash, weapon test or something else, the event is far from being explained, and most likely, more theories will come over the decades.

Today is the last day for Bill Gates as executive president at Microsoft. Some months ago he released this clip about him looking for a new job.

The ending words from a news presenter are quite funny too.

And all tech markets remain steady as Bill Gates completed his last full day at Microsoft. Personal note: all of us here at NBC news will miss reporting every night on this brilliant, powerful, let’s face it, sexy and good looking leader of men and women who just doesn’t believe in paying more than $7 for a haircut.

I started this blog at the beginning of 2007 and until now I had more than 10,000 unique visits, which is pretty good, I believe. I wrote here about LINQ, C#, C++, Visual Studio, events and others. I hope they served the readers well, and I’ll try to write more during the next year.

This year was a very good one for me, both at personal and professional level. Besides starting with this blog, I had the chance to attend the MVP summit in Seattle where I met a lot of friends from CodeGuru.com. I also co-founded Codexpert.ro, a Romanian site for C++ programmers, that goes better and better. I also changed jobs and had the opportunity to visit Norway and Sweden for some business trips. I can only hope the next year will be as good as this one.

Until I’ll be able to write new things, I wish you all a happy new year.