If you’re a football fan you must have heard about the octopus called Paul that has predicted the outcome of all Germany’s matches at the World Cup 2010. She lives in the Sea Life Aquarium in the western city of Oberhausen. Before each match she was given two jars with a mussel and a national flag inside. And every time she picked the mussel from the jar with the flag of the correct winner. Yesterday she picked Spain over Germany.
Now, I want to make a prediction about her current and next predictions: she got the result of tonight’s match wrong, Germany will win. And then, she’ll have to chose between Netherlands and Germany and will pick the Netherlands. Now, the prediction is not that much about who wins (it doesn’t matter actually who wins), it’s about how Paul makes the picks.
How did I do this prediction? Well, I see patterns. 
And here is Paul’s prediction pattern. She is giving two jars, arranged by the teams order:
Germany – Australia
Germany – Serbia
Ghana – Germany
Germany – England
Argentina – Germany
Germany – Spain
She’s picking left, right, right, left, right, right. The next match will be between Netherlands and Germany and she will pick left, thus Netherlands.
Let’s see how good I am with predictions.
UPDATE: OK, psychic Paul was right once again. But I still predict that it will pick left, thus, Uruguay for Germany’s next match.
SECOND UPDATE: so Paul has picked Germany over Uruguay, and Spain over Netherlands. That completely ruins my prediction. 
